“We joke that it’s a calculator “non-profit” bitcoin”, so the technical Director RandomCrypto, Josh Metnick (Josh Metnick) described the company’s recently released tool that calculates the profitability of bitcoin mining.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Mitnick said that he hoped to improve the situation of such calculators. In his opinion, they do not reflect accurate information about what a mining hardware is to buy and use. Using a new method of computation and the current exchange rate of the cryptocurrency calculator RandomCrypto shows that mining hardware is not profitable samples.
Non-profit was even the flagship model S9 and the new Bitmain miners production GMO chips 7-nm B2.
“Our goal is not to show mining profitable or non-profitable — and to bring more truth, accuracy, and transparency in mining [based on proof of work]. Sometimes mining, sometimes profitable, sometimes not. In the future we need to create tools and reporting system to equipment manufacturers remained honest,” said Metnick.
Metric gave examples of that transparency and honesty in this industry leaves much to be desired.
“A considerable part of his life — a few years — I tried to grab a new device of production of Butterfly Labs, Advanced Miner, KnCMiner. However, the producers disappeared with millions of dollars, among whom was my savings. […] This calculator was a response to years of deception on the part of mining companies”.
According to Mitnica, advanced calculator RandomCrypto quite simple, but before them no one did.
“After several years of observations we found that all other calculators show the result of hashing as “profit”, although in fact it is products.”
Observations showed that the main parameter that calculators believe correctly, that “complexity” — the higher the difficulty, the more electricity is required to solve the task of mining bitcoins. Still the complexity with time grew exponentially. The sites like CoinWarz and CryptoCompare show the complexity as a static variable, measured in one particular day.
Mitnick argues that since calculators do not take into account the rapid growth in complexity, they make mining equipment more attractive for purchase than it deserves. Team RandomCrypto continues: if the complexity is still growing exponentially for the past 10 years, the trend needs to continue, and calculators must consider this fact.
“The difficulty of mining is increasing exponentially since the creation of bitcoin. If you deny that fact, or not to include it in the calculations, mining calculator will be useless.”
Metric continued that based on current prices of bitcoin, the smaller mining farm, the lower her chances of becoming profitable.
“At the moment with the current exchange rate for bitcoin there is no one manufacturer with a positive ROI (return on investment, return on investment) when purchasing equipment retail. It’s time to take a break”.
The developers RandomCrypto emphasize that the prediction of the profitability of mining has its own specifics, but the use of the algorithm on historical data showed high precision, and the erroneous predictions does not exceed 1%.
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