Analysts at Barclays have developed a pricing model of bitcoin, which draws its analogy from the world of epidemiology. Their forecast is disappointing for the first cryptocurrencies: most likely, she will not return to recent peaks.

The group of analysts of the banking conglomerate, headed by Joseph Ebeyt (Joseph Abate), and compared the price movement of bitcoin with the spread of infectious diseases. When the population reaches the threshold of immunity, the disease reaches a plateau and then falls, reminded analysts. In his note to clients they wrote:

“As more of the population become owners of assets, the proportion of the population available for the acquisition of new buyers (potential owners), falls, and the proportion of the population who are potential sellers increases. Ultimately it leads to equalization of prices. In progress prices begin to fall, as random shocks for larger asset holders increase the ratio of buyers and sellers. This causes the speculative influx of proposals for sale, because the front projected exponential decline of prices.”

According to analysts, the main variables that determine when an increase in the price of BTC goes into a decline, be the proportion of people aware of cryptocurrency, and the proportion willing to invest in it. Surveys in developed countries show that awareness about cryptocurrency approached the highs, and willing to invest a little.

They reminded that the price of bitcoin went through a significant drop in 2011 and 2013, but now the level of awareness of the population signals that the cryptocurrency is not likely to return to its December highs.

“We believe that speculative froth phase of investment into the cryptocurrency and perhaps the maximum price is passed,” wrote analysts at Barclays.

We will remind, earlier experts of Morgan Stanley published a study in which he noted that the movement of bitcoin prices follows the dot-com bubble, only with more speed.