A Japanese economist and Finance Professor Yukio Noguchi (Noguchi Yukio) believes that the cause of the collapse bitcoin of steel futures contracts. According to experts, the launch of futures trading on the BTC exchanges Cboe and CME interrupted the trend of increase and, eventually, led to a General negative trend of the market see today.
Says Noguchi, futures “killed” all the chances of a multiple increase in the future.
“Due to the fact that it is now possible to trade futures on bitcoin, you’ll never see rapid growth of quotations” — said in his column on Diamond Online. The economist emphasizes that the current situation has a positive side: the return of market to normal prices.
A similar position is shared by the experts at the Federal reserve Bank of San Francisco. In the Economic Bulletin of the Bank Letter of may 7, the analysts write:
“Since inception in 2009 and until mid-2017 exchange rate for bitcoin does not exceed $4000. In the second half of 2017 exchange rate for bitcoin has increased significantly, almost reaching $20,000, but approximately from mid-December began to fall sharply. Price peaked at the opening of trading futures on the Chicago Mercantile exchange. Rapid increase with the subsequent decline that began after the introduction of futures does not seem to be random succession of events. They fit well into the typical patterns of trading observed after the advent of futures contracts on any asset.”
According to the researchers, this has never happened before:
“…we believe that the pricing dynamics of [BTC] corresponds to the rise and decline of the mortgage lending market in the 2000s… in a Similar way, the emergence of the blockchain has led to the creation of a new financial instrument, bitcoin, which soared in price due to the optimistic investors; with the introduction of the futures market came the skeptics, which led to a return to price dynamics of bitcoin”.
The authors of the Bulletin think that futures bitcoin gave the bears a lever to put regular pressure on the market that significantly reduces the likelihood that last year’s growth again.
“Futures bitcoin gave the skeptics the opportunity to play on the depreciation by buying and selling contracts with a higher cost than the projected cost of the asset.”
Neither CME nor Cboe statement Noguchi has not commented. Futures contracts also appear in the recent conflict between Bloomberg News and cryptocurrency exchange Kraken. Recall that in response to the publication, allegedly proving fraud USDT on the stock exchange, Kraken representatives accused the publication, in the manipulation of futures.
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