Co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee (Tom Lee) admitted that his forecast as to the rally of bitcoin after the conference, the Consensus 2018 is not justified, but expressed confidence that cryptobytes “strengthened” cryptocurrency.
Recall that accurately predicting the growth of markets after tax day in the US in April, you made a new forecast in early may, suggesting that crypto-currencies will rally during and after the conference, and even more impressive than in years past.
As you know, this did not happen. 18 may Lee published his findings in a report to clients on Twitter. The analyst noted that the cryptocurrency markets have lost up to 10% of the cost during the Consensus, despite the fact that the conference was attended by 8700 participants, which is three times more than last year.
Tom Lee explained that his forecast was based on such factors as the gathering of representatives of the crypto community “in a Central location” and “number of participants”, which was supposed to have a favorable impact on rates of cryptocurrencies and “to strengthen the degree of conviction of the crypto community”.
In his opinion, the fact that the forecast did not materialize, largely due to the fact that the stock market still has to deal with “significant internal resistance” of representatives of traditional banking.
“Crypto is still faced with considerable internal resistance and barriers to traditional financial institutions… nevertheless, it is encouraging that a significant proportion of the increase of participants were representatives of financial institutions,” wrote Lee.
From the point of view of the analyst, kryptonyte three necessary conditions for progress: institutional tools, support, banks, and certainty in regulation.
“The rally in the framework of Consensus 2018 not happened, very sorry. We had three conditions of progress: (1) institutional storage/tools; (2) support banks/investment managers; (3) the clarity of the regulations (need three out of three, but there is progress on (1) and (2)”, — said the analyst.
In particular, Lee noted the emergence of multiple solutions for the trust (custodian) storage of crypto-currency deposits, including the “most important”, from his point of view, the event — agreement with Japanese Bank Nomura Ledger and Global Advisors, in which we can talk about the emergence of the first settlement and credit Bank for cryptocurrencies. He also believes that to attract more institutional investors, it is important to stop only associate the blockchain with bitcoin.
In General, Lee believes that “conviction” supporters of the cryptocurrency at the time of the conference only grew. Moreover, despite the fact that the only cryptocurrency in the top 10, the rate of which increased during the Consensus, was the zcash for — and because of the inclusion in the listing on the stock exchange Gemini, according to Bloomberg, analysts Fundstrat not change their opinions about the potential growth rate of the leading cryptocurrency of up to $25,000 by the end of this year.
Note, a few days before the conference the company also presented a forecast that bitcoin will be worth $36 000 by the end of 2019.