Although bitcoin is probably already reached the “bottom”, it doesn’t mean that cryptocurrency will reach new highs this year. This opinion was expressed by economist and trader Tour Demeester (Tuur Demeester) in his blog on Medium.
The expert believes that the market needs more time to absorb the 36-month rally in which the rate of bitcoin has risen from $250 to a peak near $20,000 in December 2017.
According to him, in 2018 will be remembered as a period characterized by challenges of growth – when uncertain, investors got rid of their savings, regulators have struggled to keep up with the beginning of last year rise, and the infrastructure continued to develop.
Their findings, Demeester is based on several factors. Among them – the competition in mining is growing, despite the decline in the price of BTC. According to the economist, since January, the profitability of bitcoin mining fell by 90%, which resulted in significant selling pressure on the market.
While the miners have a lot of pressure on the market, neither individual nor institutional investors can not provide customer support that made possible the establishment of new price records in the near future.
According to a recent poll Gallup/Wells Fargo, less than 0.5% of investors in the US are going to buy BTC in the near future, and the data Google Trends show that the number of search queries on the topic of bitcoin remains below the level of the similar period of last year – not to mention the performance of the fourth quarter.
Demeester, notes that although the interest in bitcoin by institutional investors in recent months has increased markedly, it comes primarily from those firms that are engaged in trading. While those companies that spetsializiruyutsya on long-term investments (pension and mutual funds), still remain outside of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Technical Outlook for bitcoin is also not encouraging. According to Demeester, and the value of networking at Metcalfe (relative to user activity), and the value concerning the transaction, indicate that bitcoin is overvalued relative to its current level of usage.
On the basis of an overall assessment of all factors, Demeester concludes that for the remaining part of the 2018 price of bitcoin at best will continue to fluctuate, and at worst may resume the fall, before will start to grow again in 2019.