According to the analyst CoinDesk Omkara of Godbole to break stretching more than a year bearish trend bitcoin should start to gain a foothold above $3919.

Using this mark is a 10-week simple moving average (SMA), which since the beginning of last year is a serious resistance, limiting the growth rates of the first cryptocurrencies. However, this SMA is only the first step. Confirmation of the change long-term trend will serve a 21-month EMA, taking place at the moment through the level of $5400.

Weekly chart

The graph shows that the price of bitcoin during most of the year actively opposed the ill-fated SMA 10 until 14 November fell below the psychological level of $6000.

In 2018, the price crossed SMA 10 only four times — in February, April, late July and late August. Every time is fleeting upward movement misled the bulls are desperately hoping for a resumption of the rally.

Currently, bitcoin is trading around $3650 (Bitstamp exchange) being below the 10-week SMA. Consequently, the mood in the overall market is still bearish.

Daily chart

BTC rose above $3556 (minimum 27 Dec), but the price is still within a downtrend channel. The RSI indicator indicates a probability that will soon be breached the lower boundary of this channel. Then bitcoin is likely to be fixed at the December lows near $3122.

Hourly chart

On a smaller timeframe we can clearly see a “Descending triangle”, confirming the thesis of the high probability short-term price reduction.

Chart Watch: #BTC has created a descending triangle on the hourly chart.

— CoinDesk Markets (@CoinDeskMarkets) 15 January 2019 R.

Recall that the cryptanalyst Galaxy expressed the view that the bullish rally of bitcoin prices will start in the second half of this year.