Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst Thomas Lee admitted his mistake regarding the forecast of the likely price increase of bitcoin during last week conference Consensus 2018, describing the reasons why it never happened.
Earlier in may, the analyst suggested that the conference Consensus 2018 will have a positive impact on the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. His conclusion, he argued that in previous years, crypto-currencies showed growth in the range between 10% and 70% after Consensus, and scope of a new conference could cause a rapid rally of bitcoin to reach $15 000.
This year the conference Consensus 2018 has attracted about 9,000 visitors and a large number of speakers and experts, breaking its previous attendance records.
Bitcoin actually went up on Monday, may 14, the first day of the conference, rising close to $8900. To gain a foothold at this level the first cryptocurrency, however, failed: the next day, the course swooped back down again, falling at some point even lower than $8000. The last few days bitcoin traded in a range between $8200 and $8300.
CRYPTO: #Consensus2018 rally did not happen, very disappointing. What we needed was a trifecta of progress: (i) institutional custody/tools; (ii) buy-in by banks/investment managers; (iii) regulatory clarity (3 of 3 needed), but we got progress on (i) and (ii). Full text below pic.twitter.com/XcqNhgYgK7
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) 18 May 2018
“Rally during the 2018 Consensus did not happen, and this is very frustrating. This required three conditions: 1) institutional repository/tools, 2) participation banks/investment managers, 3) regulatory certainty”, wrote Thomas H. Lee, adding that progress was made only on the first two items.
He also proposed a more detailed analysis of the market, noting that, despite the fact that the conference has really made a number of important statements (the most important of these he called the news that Japanese Bank Nomura, with the participation of Global Advisor Holdings and manufacturer of hardware wallets Ledger creates a company that will specialize in the safe storage of digital assets), it is the continuing lack of regulatory clarity creates barriers to entering the market of big money from institutional investors.
The only major cryptocurrency, which demonstrated this week growth was zcash for, but, as noted by Thomas Lee, it happened solely because of its addition to the stock exchange Gemini.
He also said that while the number of investment funds considers bitcoins to be “boring” and that other protocols are “better or faster”, he along with Ethereum continues to be one of the two key cryptocurrency investors, and that the volume of payments using bitcoin continues to grow.
On the basis of the above Thomas Lee concludes that, despite the fact that the rally did not happen during 2018 Consensus cryptocurrency as a whole “become stronger”.
Earlier this week, the exchange BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said that at the moment due to the weak involvement of institutional investors in the cryptocurrency industry is more a “retail phenomenon”. However, it does not exclude that by the end of 2018 bitcoin price could reach $50 000.