Analytical credit rating Agency (ACRA) published 7 June survey data on the impact of cryptocurrencies on the Russian economy and financial stability of the country. The authors declare that no aspect of digital currencies not a threat to the Russian economy and Finance, and assess the prospects of development of the sector.
In confirmation of the thesis about the absence of threats of digital currencies experts ACRE give the following calculations and arguments:
- Cryptocurrency does not play the role of money: volatility of its exchange rate does not allow to use it as means of payment.
- The market value of cryptocurrency held by residents of the Russian Federation, for the first quarter of 2018, is $7.5-14 billion (1-2% of the national money supply). This volume is concentrated in the hands of a small number of owners, which minimizes the risks to the financial stability of the country. If these crypto assets have been distributed among the Russian population as well as foreign currency, then volatility could affect the stability of the Russian economy.
- The volatility of cryptocurrencies may occasionally cause an increase in interest rates on domestic borrowing to 1% if the amount of crypto-currencies in the debt structure of resident legal entities and individual entrepreneurs — will reach 4 trillion. rubles. While it is not necessary to speak.
- ACRE experts believe that in a situation of widespread cryptocurrencies, the Central Bank will be able to use the same tools of monetary policy that in respect of foreign currency. In the absence of full transparency in transactions with cryptocurrencies they will play for the Central Bank the role of equivalent foreign currency in cash, if possible tracking — non-cash foreign currency.
- Finally, experts believe that the proliferation of digital currencies reduces transaction costs in the economy. While the cryptocurrency has a number of drawbacks: it is energy inefficient, lack economies of scale in matters of cybersecurity (the cumulative cost of the owners of the wallets may be higher than the cost of the banks), low speed entries in the registry. Thus, these factors nullify the potential competitive advantage of crypto-currencies — reducing the number of intermediaries in the calculations (banks).
A comparison of the national money supply (M2) on the sample of countries and a market capitalization of cryptocurrency market on November 1, 2017 (trillion. dollars). Source — IMF website
The authors, are key factors that can stimulate the growth in the share of cryptocurrency in Russia:
- The growth of the global market capitalization of cryptocurrencies.
- Recognition of cryptocurrencies controller as the unit of calculation in Russia or other countries.
- Legislative level liberal regulatory regime for ICO and payments in the cryptocurrency.
In addition, the growth of investment in public cryptocurrency and uniform distribution of digital currencies among the population can contribute to such factors as a decrease in the yield of conventional forms of savings (deposits, savings, foreign currency) and the growth of welfare, increase the propensity for saving; tougher sanctions amid growing foreign policy and economic tensions, increasing the risk or dollar value calculations; the more active use of Internet by the population; increase in the number of ICO, conducted in-country or citizens of the country; the progressive readiness of young generation to invest the savings in digital assets.
Thus, when assessing the prospects of cryptocurrencies in Russia, scientists take into account a set of interrelated factors of economic, political and technological nature. Some of them are difficult to predict, and only time will show which of the possible scenarios will actually be implemented.