Over the past few years February has been one of the most successful months for “digital gold”. This draws the attention of CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole.
On the other hand, he said, the bearish pressure is now much stronger than in previous years. The price of BTC at risk in the next few days to ruin important support at 200-day moving average (MA) passing through the level of $3298. In this case, the next target will be $3100.
In January of this year, the price of the first cryptocurrency dipped by about 7%. Currently BTC traded on Bitstamp in the neighborhood of $3400.
In the table below, you can see that in the last four years, January was a bad month for bitcoin:
However, in 2015 every February, the bulls pushed forward positions, the price recovered to 16.25%, 18.11%, 23.57% and 1.6%. However, despite this positive statistics, a small chance that bitcoin will repeat this February the dynamics of the past years.
Consider the current market situation on different timeframes.
MA with periods of 5 and 10 aimed at “the South”. For the first time in 2015 bitcoin is trading well below these averages and the values of relative strength index (RSI) drops in the oversold area.
Thus, most likely, in February, the main trend should remain bearish and the price is unlikely to baffle bitcoin skeptics.
The three-day schedule
In December, the BTC price briefly rebounded to around $4000, and this happened on the background of bullish divergence on the RSI. However, the price subsequently did not continue the upward movement. Moreover, the bitcoin fell back to a six-week low.
The inability of the asset to rise amid bullish divergence indicates a clear predominance of bearish sentiment in the market.
The price is under the 10-week MA and may soon drop to December lows at $3100. After that, the next support is likely to serve as the psychological level of $3000.
Few to withstand the onslaught of the bears may be “heavy” MA period 200.
Note that the current bear market has already become the most protracted in the history of bitcoin:
Fractal of the 2014/15 bear market and drawdown comparison of 86.8% with #out bitcoins s current bear market of a drawdown of 83.53% @Bitstamp
An extra ~ 3% drop could see prices fall to $2.5 k
Tomorrow officially marks the longest bear run for $BTC on a Weekly TF pic.twitter.com/uY8q9Z6sCG
— CoinDesk Markets (@CoinDeskMarkets) 31 January 2019 R.
Recall, Omkar Godbole admitted that the price of bitcoin could fall to lows of September 2017 at $2970.